China's photovoltaic industry is steadily advancing, how is the development of other countries？

Amongthefivecountrieswiththefastestgrowthrateofphotovoltaicinstalledcapacityin2023,accordingtothelistreleasedbyPVTech,Chinastillranksfirstwithasignificantadvantage,withphotovoltaicgrowthratesignificantlyleading,andtheUnitedStatesrankingsecond.TheChinesephotovoltaicindustryisthriving,notonlyleadingtheglobaldevelopmentofphotovoltaics,butalsotakingtheshortesttimefrombreakthroughsinphotovoltaicpanelproductiontechnologytomassproduction.Itcannotonlymeetdomesticdemand,butalsoplayaleadingroleintheglobalphotovoltaicindustry.Inthefirst11monthsof2023,thenewlyinstalledcapacityreached163.88GW,anditisexpectedtoexceed180GWthroughouttheyear,whichismuchhigherthanthecumulativeinstalledcapacityofmanycountries;InNovember,thenewinstalledcapacityofphotovoltaicpowerinasinglemonthreached21.32GW,whichishigherthantheannualnewinstalledcapacityofmostcountries.However,accordingtostatisticsfromtheChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation,amongthefourmainlinksintheupstreamandmidstreamofChina'sphotovoltaicindustrychain,theproductionofpolycrystallinesiliconreached1.14milliontonsinthefirst10monthsof2023alone,ayear-on-yearincreaseof86%;Theproductionofsiliconwafersreached460GW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof79%;Theproductionofbatterycellsreached404GW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof74%;Thecomponentproductionreached367GW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof72%.Theproductioncapacityonthesupplysideisstillsignificantlyhigherthandomesticdemand(withnewinstalledcapacity),whichhasledtoaseriesofproblemssuchasovercapacity,inventorybacklog,pricewars,andpricereductions.Itispreciselyinthissituationthatseekingalargermarketforexportsandpromotingcapacitydigestionhavebecomenecessaryactions.Fromthesituationin2023,China'sphotovoltaicexportstotheseaarestillmaintainingahighgrowthrate.AccordingtothedatareleasedbytheChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociationfromJanuarytoOctober,theexportvolumeofsiliconwafersreached55.7GW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof90%;Theexportvolumeofbatterycellswas32.4GW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof72%;Theexportvolumeofcomponentswas177.6GW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof34%.Theoveralldataisstillimpressive,buttherearealsomanyhiddenconcerns.Firstly,thegrowthrateofcomponentexportshassloweddownduetothebacklogofinventoryinEuropeandexportrestrictionsinIndia;Secondly,overseasmarketsarealsofacingtheproblemofpricereductions.Whiletheexportvolumeremainshigh,thetotalexportvalueofChina'sphotovoltaicproductsinthefirst10monthshasdecreasedby2.4%;Thirdly,photovoltaiccompaniesarefacingincreasinglyfrequenttraderestrictionssuchastariffsandgreencertificationsoverseas.TheUnitedStatesrankssecondandisexpectedtoadd33GWofphotovoltaicinstalledcapacitythroughouttheyear.Moreover,theindustrygenerallybelievesthatiftherearenosignificantchangesinthedomesticpoliticalsituationintheUnitedStates,thefuturegrowthrateofphotovoltaicswillbeevenmoresignificant.Previously,theBidenadministrationhadannouncedagoalofachieving100%cleanpowergridby2035.AccordingtoBloomberg'sNewEnergyFinanceforecast,theinstalledcapacityofnewphotovoltaicunitsintheUnitedStateswillreach358GWbetween2023and2030.Iftheforecastistrue,thegrowthrateinthecomingyearswillbemuchfasterthanin2023.FortheUSmarket,Chinesephotovoltaiccompanies,especiallymodulemanufacturersthatsufferedsetbacksinEuropein2023,areshowinganincreasinglypositiveattitude.AsTrinaSolarannouncedonSeptember11lastyearthatithadinvested$200millioninWilmer,Texastobuildamodulefactorywithanannualproductioncapacityofapproximately5GW,China'sfivemajorphotovoltaicmodulecompanies(JinkoEnergy,LongiGreenEnergy,JinaoTechnology,TrinaSolar,andAtlas)haveallachievedtheirfactoryconstructionintheUnitedStates.Amongthem,thefirstUSproductionlinelayoutofJinaoTechnology,Atlas,andTrinaSolarwasachievedin2023.InthelatestissueoftheEnergyInfrastructureUpdatereport,theFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)revealedtheriseofphotovoltaicsystemsintheUSenergysector.Accordingtodata,inthefirst10monthsof2023,theinstalledcapacityofphotovoltaicsystemsintheUnitedStatesreachedanastonishing10937MW,accountingfor42.1%ofthetotalenergyinstalledcapacityinthecountry.ThisindicatesthatthepositionofphotovoltaicpowergenerationintheUSenergysectorisincreasinglyelevated.Asofnow,thecumulativeinstalledcapacityofphotovoltaicsystemsintheUnitedStateshasaccountedfor7.3%ofthetotalinstalledcapacity.Althoughthereisstillsomedistancecomparedto11.6%ofwindpowerfacilities,photovoltaicpowergenerationisrapidlyapproaching7.9%ofhydroelectricpowergeneration.Thisundoubtedlydemonstratestheenormouspotentialandstronggrowthmomentumofphotovoltaicpowergeneration.KenBossong,ExecutiveDirectorofSUNDAYCampaign,stated,"Photovoltaicsystems,asthefastest-growingsourceofelectricity,areleadingtheUnitedStatestowardsagradualtransitionfromrelianceonnuclearenergyandfossilfuels.However,itisworthnotingthattheshareofrenewableenergyinUSenergyproductionandconsumptionisstillrelativelysmall.Thisfurtheremphasizestheneedtovigorouslydevelopmorephotovoltaicsystems,windpower,andotherrenewableenergygenerationfacilitiestoachievesignificantreductionsingreenhousegasemissions."Japan,Germany,andIndiarankthird,fourth,andfifthrespectivelyFujiEconomicreleasedamarketforecastreportforsolarcellsandrelatedbusinessesinOctoberlastyear.Accordingtopredictions,thevalueoftheJapanesesolarcellmarketin2023is311billionyen(approximately15.199billionyuan),adecreaseof7.1%comparedto2022;Ontheotherhand,thepowergenerationcapacityis7750MW,anincreaseof1.2%comparedto2022.FujiEconomicreleasedamarketforecastreportforsolarcellsandrelatedbusinessesinOctoberthisyear.Accordingtothisforecast,thevalueoftheJapanesesolarcellmarketin2023is311billionyen(approximately15.199billionyuan),adecreaseof7.1%comparedto2022;Ontheotherhand,thepowergenerationcapacityis7750MW,anincreaseof1.2%comparedto2022.After2020,withtheincreaseinfactorypricesandelectricitybills,thedemandforsolarcellsinJapanhasincreased,andthemarketvalueofbothresidentialandnonresidentialsectorshasatendencytoexpand.In2022,duetohighelectricitycosts,thecapacityofsolarcellsforresidentialusehassignificantlyexpanded,exceeding1000MW.Duetothefavorablesituationintheresidentialsector,thecapacitywillcontinuetoincreasein2023.However,duetothechaoticsupplychainbecomingmorestable,factorypriceswillalsodecline,andthemarketvaluetendstoshrink.Itisexpectedthatby2024,therewillbeanurgentdemandduetotheapplicationoftheFITcertificationinvalidationsystemfornonresidentialareas.However,by2025,duetotheimpactoftheFITsystem,theintroductionofsolarpowergenerationwillbesignificantlyreduced,andbothitsvalueandquantitywillbesignificantlyreduced.ItispredictedthatthevalueoftheJapanesesolarcellmarketwillcontinuetodecreaseto223.2billionyen(approximately10.908billionyuan)in2040,ayear-on-yeardecreaseof33.3%,andthecapacitywillincreaseto9070MW,ayear-on-yearincreaseof18.4%.Itisexpectedthatby2024,therewillbeanurgentdemandduetotheapplicationoftheFITcertificationinvalidationsystemfornonresidentialareas.However,by2025,duetotheimpactoftheFITsystem,theintroductionofsolarpowergenerationwillbesignificantlyreduced,andbothitsvalueandquantitywillbesignificantlyreduced.OnJanuary5th,theFederalNetworkAgency(BNetzA)ofGermanyreleasedimpressivedataonGermany'srenewableenergyinstalledcapacityfor2023.Thisyear,Germany'ssolarinstalledcapacityincreasedby14.1GW,almosttwicetheamountin2022.Thisismainlyduetoalargenumberofprivatelyinstalledsolarphotovoltaicmodules,amongwhichhouseholdphotovoltaicshavegrownbyanastonishing135%.Atthesametime,thesolarinstalledcapacityofgroundlevelcentralizedpowerstationsandcommercialrooftopshasalsoincreasedsignificantly,by40%and75%respectively.Bavaria'ssolarinstalledcapacityhasgrownsignificantlyin2023,withanadditional3.5GWofinstalledcapacity.Asoftheendof2023,Germany'sinstalledsolarcapacityhasreached81.7GW.However,Germany'sgoalfor2030is215GW,whichmeansthatfromnowon,anadditional19GWofinstalledcapacitywillbeneededeachyear.ItisworthnotingthatmostprivatelyoperatedrooftopsolarenergyinGermanyisequippedwithbatterystoragesystems.In2023,approximately70%ofprivatesolarfacilitiesareequippedwithenergystoragebatteries.ThistrendindicatesthatGermany'sdevelopmentinthefieldofrenewableenergynotonlyfocusesonscaleexpansion,butalsoonimprovingenergyefficiencyandstability.However,IndiaispredictedbytheUSEnergyAgencytosurpassChinaastheworld'slargestphotovoltaicinstalledcapacitybefore2050.However,itspathtolocalizingphotovoltaicsisnotsmooth,witha28%year-on-yeardecreaseinnewinstalledcapacitylastyear,whichissurprising.Manyinstitutionsbelievethatthisisanexampleofitsdomesticmanufacturingnotbeingsufficienttosupporthighgrowthplans.Butthecompetitioninthismarketwillinevitablybecomeincreasinglyfierceinthefuture.OnJanuary11th,AmericanphotovoltaicgiantFirstSolarannouncedaninvestmentof$700milliontobuildacomponentfactoryinIndia,withanexpectedannualproductioncapacityof3.3GW.IfIndiacanfulfillitsmarketpotentialinthefuture,facingincreasinglystrictrestrictions,ChinesephotovoltaiccompaniesmayalsogotoIndiatobuildfactoriesandfurtherparticipateincompetition.OnthelandofIndia,thenewlyadded6.5GWlargegroundphotovoltaicpowerstationsarerisinglikemushrooms,while3GWrooftopphotovoltaicpowerstationsarealsoemerging.Inaddition,thenewlyadded500MWoffgrid/distributedsolarpowerstationsareIndia'scleverlayout.India'srenewableenergyinstalledcapacityhasreachedaspectacularfigureof133.89GW,withsolarenergycontributingthemost,accountingforabout55%ofthemarketshare.